A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
